Fig.1 below reflects an “Intra‐Day” perspective for FNMA current coupon yields and the decline of ~0.18% over the past three days, which is in direct conflict to what would have been expected given the looming debt ceiling concerns. Economic fundamentals today outweighed concerns over the debt debate as a weaker-than-expected GDP result was released and some sharp revisions were made to prior growth results. [GDP+1.3% QoQ Annualized]
In short, this drives home an important point: Liquidity risk is just as important as the credit risk associated with investments. It’s potentially even more critical right now given the example of Greece, which is struggling more from its ability to cash flow than its outstanding debt.
The lower yields imply a lower borrowing cost to consumers, which will help improve affordability (though that remains at all time highs) but I caution that pressure is building for a potential whipsaw in rates both from a regulatory and …






